Fewer state voters view President Donald Trump unfavorably than earlier this year, but more disapprove of the way he’s doing his job, too, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College released today.
Voters also see U.S. Sen. Bob Casey more favorably, but more of them continue to disapprove of his job performance than approve, though the disapproval isn’t as bad as before, according to the poll.
As Casey’s standing improved somewhat, the poll showed a potential Republican challenger for his Senate seat next year, U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, remains largely unknown among state voters, despite years in the spotlight as an opponent of illegal immigration.
Gov. Tom Wolf’s job approval rating stayed the same, but far more voters viewed him strongly unfavorably. The poll showed almost half of voters think things in the state remain on the wrong track. One possible Republican alternative to Wolf in the election next year, state Sen. Scott Wagner, also remains largely unknown.
The poll surveyed 398 registered voters between Sept. 13 and Monday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.2 percentage points.
Voters’ views of Trump improved with about 43 percent saying they have a strongly or somewhat favorable opinion of him, up from about 37 percent in a February F&M poll. The numbers of people who view him unfavorably dropped from about 57 percent to about 45 percent.
However, they like the way he’s doing his job less. About 29 percent think he’s doing an excellent or good job, down from about 32 percent in February. The numbers who think he’s doing a fair or poor job rose to about 71 percent from about 67 percent.
G. Terry Madonna, the poll director, said he’s unsure why one measure improved and the other worsened.
“It could indicate more acceptance of his rhetoric and style, even though he’s very controversial in what he wants to do,” Madonna said. “I was going to say that he has become more likeable, but I don’t know.”
More significantly, Madonna said, Trump voters largely continue to stick with him. About 93 percent who voted for him say they’re comfortable with the choice. About 84 percent say they remain Trump supporters and about 14 percent say their feelings have changed.
“His support continues to hang in with him,” Madonna said. “In my humble judgment, that’s the key to understanding Trump ... That’s pretty telling in this state.”
Casey’s favorability went up slightly (45 percent now, 41 percent in February), and his unfavorability stayed about the same (24 percent now, 25 percent in February). Eleven years after the Scranton Democrat’s first Senate victory over Sen. Rick Santorum, Casey remains an enigma to about 11 percent who are undecided and 20 percent who don’t know their opinion.
That’s still far better than a January 2012 F&M poll, 10 months before voters re-elected him. In that poll, only about 29 percent viewed him favorably, about 17 percent viewed him unfavorably and 53 percent had no opinion or were undecided.
His job approval rating remains mixed at best with about 37 percent believing he’s doing a good or excellent job, same as the February poll, and about 42 percent believing he’s only doing a good or fair job, down 45 percent from February.
“I think Barletta’s going to have a tough time beating him,” Madonna said.
That presumes Barletta wins the Republican nomination, which multiple other candidates in his own party hope to prevent. The poll did not ask about the other Republican candidates, who include real estate developer Jeff Bartos; former energy executive Paul Addis; cyber security consultant Cynthia E. Ayers; state Rep. Jim Christiana, R-15, Beaver County, and state Rep. Rick Saccone, R-39, Allegheny County.
None of them is well-known, but the poll showed neither is Barletta, who is viewed favorably by about 15 percent, unfavorably by about 9 percent and unknown or uncertain in the minds of about 76 percent.
In the governor’s race, Wolf starts off in worse shape than before his 2014 election, which he began as an unknown.
Back in June 2014, after he won the Democratic primary, about 35 percent viewed Wolf favorably and only about 12 percent viewed him unfavorably.
About 36 percent still view Wolf strongly or somewhat favorably, but that’s down from slightly from about 41 percent in a February poll. Conversely, the percentages of people who view him strongly or somewhat unfavorably rose from about 34 percent to about 42 percent. The number who view him strongly unfavorably rose even more sharply from about 19 percent to 34 percent.
“I think that has to do with the budget,” Madonna said. “Governors tend to get the blame when there’s a budget problem because they’re the statewide figure.”
As for Wolf’s job approval, it improved slightly since February with 38 percent saying he is doing an excellent or good now, compared to about 34 percent then and about 55 percent saying he is doing a fair or poor job now compared to 54 percent then.
Wolf and the state General Assembly approved a budget in July, but have yet to complete its funding. On Wednesday, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the state’s credit rating as the state began missing payments for Medicaid, to school districts and others.
State Sen. Scott Wagner, R-28, York, perhaps the most active potential Republican challenger to Wolf, remains even more unknown than Barletta.
About 8 percent view him favorably while about 9 percent view him unfavorably, but about 85 percent don’t know their opinion of him or remain undecided.
“Big state, big state, big state. Who in the hell knows Lou Barletta and Scott Wagner statewide?” Madonna asked.
Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com; 570-348-9147