Elated over the prospects of a mild winter? Well, don’t get your hopes up just yet.
Though the odds may favor slightly above-average temperatures, it’s only a chance, Mike Murphy, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Binghamton, New York, said.
“Overall, winter may end up being a degree above average,” he said.
This means Old Man Winter’s cold breath still may blow in freezeouts, snow and ice, and maybe a nor’easter, too.
“Make sure to take your typical precautions,” Murphy said.
There’s uncertainty in long-range forecasts, said Mitchell Gaines, also a meteorologist for the weather service, and in warning signs of snowy and cold periods, especially in January and February.
Travelers should check the latest forecasts before entering the road and have a safety plan they can rely on, Gaines said. Vehicles should be winter-ready and homes should have emergency supplies in the event of a power outage.
So, there’s absolutely no reward for enduring one of the wettest summers the Northeast has seen?
Murphy laughed when posed the question by a reporter. The 27.15 inches of rain that fell from June through September at the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton International Airport apparently didn’t buy the region any sympathy from Mother Nature or Old Man Winter.
Peter Bard, a weather hobbyist through his Facebook page, Anthracite Region Accuvision Weather, said we’re in store for above-average precipitation this winter, periods of warmer weather and periods of cold along with a typical 35 percent chance of a white Christmas.
Overall, he predicts the weather will be a little cooler than what meteorologists are saying.
The forecasts could all change, Bard said, but upon watching areas of snow growth in Siberia and Canada, it all looks typical, and that means the area will still have a cold, snowy winter. He said the return of an El Niño weather pattern will also influence the coming winter.
Mild air will linger in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic before the cold blows in, in January and February, AccuWeather reported. A few big snowstorms are possible, too, according to AccuWeather.
The Farmers’ Almanac calls for a long, cold, snow-filled season.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, however, calls for a warmer winter with an unusually mild forecast with above-normal precipitation and near- to below-normal snow with the coldest periods beginning in mid-December and lasting until mid-February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-December, early January, and early February, the Old Farmer’s Almanac says.
The famed buck-toothed “predictor” of winter’s end, Punxsutawney Phil, hasn’t offered any prophecies for this year’s winter, handler John Griffiths said.
And, he won’t have any say on the duration of winter until Feb. 2. when visitors flood the small western Pennsylvania town to see if Phil will foresee a longer or shorter season.
“He just doesn’t jump to conclusions like everyone else does,” Griffiths, a member of the inner circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, said.
For now Phil and his wife, Phyllis, find comfort in a climate-controlled environment that keeps them from going into full hibernation in Punxsy, their days filled with nibbling on fruits and vegetables.
Meanwhile, their wild counterparts gorged on vegetation and scarfed down gardens during the warmer weather months to prepare for their winter sleep.
Prep work
Just like animals prepare for winter’s frosty grip, humans have their own routines to follow before the cold hits. Despite the predictions for a mild winter, people are practicing caution.
At Ochs Farm in Drums, and farms throughout the region, farmers are protecting their growing fields from the cold. Things like strawberry bushes and garlic get a layer of hay spread on them, April Ochs, co-owner of the farm, said. Extra supplies are hauled in, in case power goes out.
Water lines and a water heater in the farm’s greenhouses are drained because water in the lines could expand and crack pipes.
Fluids in farm equipment are topped off so condensation can’t form and freeze inside. This winter they plan to wear warm layers as they tend to their animals and their farm stand, where they sell produce.
Though cold weather means work for farmers protecting their property from the freeze, a truly mild winter could cause problems.
A mild winter may hurt orchard trees that could bud prematurely, Ochs said. A season void of a hard freeze won’t kill soil-borne diseases that can ruin crops, while a layer of snow will allow winter wheat to prosper, she said.
It’s not only farmers who prep for winter.
The Hazleton Area School District is scouting out newer used maintenance vehicles to replace ones they can no longer use, Superintendent Brian Uplinger said. They’re also stocking up on ice-melting materials.
The district has three snow days built into its calendar this year but last year had to reach out to the state for a reprieve when they ended the year with 13 cancellations. They’ll ask for another reprieve this year, if needed.
Like years prior, Uplinger plans to be watching weather forecasts and road conditions and that means he’s taking early morning drives himself to make sure students aren’t traveling in unsafe conditions.
He asked for patience and understanding from parents when calls are made for snow days. The 256-square-mile district includes towns with varying weather patterns, Uplinger said, and delays and cancellations are made with everyone in mind.
Residents are also asked to be mindful of shoveling their sidewalks so children don’t have to walk on the road to school.
Bill DeNunzio, acting Butler Township manager, said the township isn’t taking any chances this winter. They’re finishing up their summer work this month and getting their plows and spreaders ready. The township is also building an extra salt shed because it didn’t have enough space in years past.
“I have a feeling we are going to get a lot of snow this year,” DeNunzio said, citing the phrase “prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”
When weather predictions use terms like mild winter, he said, it could still mean the area gets hard-hitting snow.
Hazle Township plans to use a salt brine on roads in Humboldt Industrial Park this year as part of a trial run.
Ronald Young Jr., of the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation District 5 office, said since long-range forecasts aren’t so reliable highway maintenance staff looks to historical data when it’s time to prepare for winter and develop a budget.
A tough winter with a series of storms could mean less money in warmer months for sign replacement and grass cutting, though it wouldn’t affect essential work like pothole repairs. Likewise, a savings from a mild winter would mean more money for warmer-weather projects.
District 5 encompasses Carbon, Berks, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton and Schuylkill counties and in total has 8,325 miles of road to maintain, including 617 in Carbon and 1,511 in Schuylkill.
Preparing for storms is a year-round task at PPL Electric Utilities, Alana Roberts, regional affairs director, said. Stronger poles and wires are being installed, trees are being cleared so they don’t fall on equipment during storms and a smart grid and automated power restoration technology keeps more customers powered when storm damage is incurred.
Yay or nay
Area state parks experienced postponements and cancellations due to the wet summer and were hoping for a typical winter so cold weather activities don’t meet a similar fate, Diane Madl, environmental education specialist at Nescopeck State Park, said.
The park hosts winter activities like its snowshoe loaner program and WinterFest, which takes place annually on the first Saturday in February, featuring ice fishing, sled dogs and a bird walk, among other events.
Mike Skotek, owner of Skotek Oil Sales in Kline Township, hopes the long-range forecast for warmer weather is right.
“I hope for a mild winter and that we don’t get brutalized with snow like we got brutalized with rain this summer,” he said. Snow makes it tough to get around, Skotek said.
Bitter cold stretches mean stress for customers and for his business. Though cold weather means a increase in sales, it also means an abundance of calls in a short amount of time. Skotek said oil customers can avoid wait times if they fill up their tanks in the fall. They can also ensure they don’t run out of oil by never letting their tank dip past half full.
Like many local oil delivery companies, he checks the New York Mercantile Exchange daily for prices, which he said are stabilized right now. A bigger oil supply means a cheaper cost but a prolonged winter causes inventories to dry up and costs increase.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil and propane prices are around $3 a gallon.
UGI natural gas customers experienced a 2.8 percent decrease in prices on June 1, Joe Swope, media relations manager at the company, said, and they are projecting an additional 9.5 percent decrease Dec. 1 due to product coming from the Marcellus Shale.
Prior to tapping the gas wells close by, cold weather meant a dramatic increase in prices. But, with capacity coming from the Marcellus Shale, that’s not the case anymore so a mild or cold winter won’t dictate prices, he said.
The coal harvesting industry likes cold weather to a degree — nearly literally.
Louis Pagnotti, an executive with Atlantic Carbon Group in Hazleton, said more coal is sold in colder weather but if temperatures dip down too low, say 13 degrees, things get difficult. Water used to sort rock and coal freezes in preparation plants, halting the process and when they can’t operate for a while, the cost of coal is driven up.
As far as the long-range forecast is concerned, Pagnotti said it’s his guess based on a lifetime of experience that Hazleton will indeed face typical winter weather and snow this year.
Contact the writer: achristman@standardspeaker.com; 570-501-3584