The upcoming autumn months in the Northeast may be quite a bit colder than normal according to one long-range forecast, but then again, they may be warmer, according to another forecast.
Whatever the forecast is, there are municipalities and companies in Schuylkill County that will deal with the weather when it arrives and reference what occurred in previous years in deciding on purchasing heating oil, salt and anti-skid material.
A forecast from the AccuWeather Global Weather Center released Aug. 6 showed the New England and Mid-Atlantic states will turn stormy this fall with very cold spells, droughts and wildfire threats persistent along the West Coast, the southern states could have severe storms and rainy weather and the northern states in mid-U.S. show cold weather with chances of snow.
AccuWeather predicts that while the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region’s largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.
“The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast,” Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster, said. “There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September.”
Pastelok said as conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down, at times, into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.
“Temperatures will not be as extreme in November when compared to last year, but October could be an extreme month,” he said.
After short-lived days of the polar vortex in September, the weather should turn a bit warmer in November as rain ramps up across areas from New York City to Boston and Portland, Maine, as well as the rest of the Northeast region.
“We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October, but in November, it will get wet,” Pastelok said.
Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Nino will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.
“December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms,” Pastelok said. “The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January.”
Meteorologist Elise Colbert at the National Weather Service in State College said what will occur in the next few months is a bit of a toss-up with no evident trends.
“As for the Climate Prediction Center with our forecast, they do have some longer range models they run and they will look at trends,” Colbert said. “If there is a definite trend colder or warmer, they’ll start by putting out an above- or below-normal outlook. Right now, we are in equal chances and there’s really not any strong hint one way or another.”
Colbert said the State College office only forecasts out for seven days, and any longer range forecasts come from a national office.
When it comes to planning for an upcoming winter, municipalities depend more on what occurred last year and ongoing trends to decide if any adjustments are necessary.
“We just look back at past years,” Ashland borough Manager Ray Jones Jr. said “We don’t look at weather predictions as far as how much (salt, heating oil) we’re going to need. Basically, our liquid fuels money sits in a fund. Whatever is not spent that year will go toward road work or something else.”
Jones said the municipal building/anthracite museum is heated with coal, which is purchased as needed.
“Some of the funds for that come out of the museum tours,” Jones said. “We did see a lot of savings last year when we converted the Washington Fire Company building from oil to natural gas two years ago. That was a big savings.”
Jones added, “As far as I’m concerned, last winter set the benchmark for snow removal.”
Gordon borough council President Michael Rader agreed with Jones that past weather events outweigh future weather forecasts.
“We’re not going to work on our budget based on the forecasts or by paging through the 2014 or 2015 Old Farmer’s Almanac and build a budget on that,” Rader said. “I think for a municipality like Gordon, we look at the cost from the previous year and that would be the driver. On a larger scale, PennDOT (the state Department of Transportation) had a huge unexpected cost last winter with salt and snow removal, and it exceeded what they had budgeted. From a budgeting perspective, the only thing you have is the historical data on what your expenditures were and you rely more on that than whatever a prediction would be or the farmer’s almanac.”
Michael Skotek, owner of Shamrock Oil Co., Mahanoy Plane, which is part of Skotek Oil Sales, McAdoo, said planning for the winter season is not affected by long-range weather prognostications.
“There is a routine procedure that is used every year, and as far as the forecasts for the weather, personally I don’t pay much attention to them,” Skotek said. “Look how many times they’ve been wrong in the past. Over the years there have been many times that I heard we were supposed to have one of the worst winters ever and it turned out to be a mild winter.”
Skotek said he understands that the weather services have modern equipment and procedures to forecast future weather patterns.
“To me, it seems like they’re trying to predict the winning numbers for the lottery,” he said. “It’s a long shot. I know they have a lot of scientific research that goes into it, but the weather still does what it wants to.”
As to whether a weather forecast affects the market cost of heating oil, Skotek said, “That’s when speculation comes into play, and speculation is there to make money for the investors. The only trouble with making money for the investors is that the consumer has to put that money there for them. That’s the futures market, which is put in place for investors to siphon money out. They don’t have to physically own the product, but then they take money out of the market again, and the money needs to be replaced by the consumer. Right now, it’s a soft market and the price is declining. I know that they’re predicting that gasoline by the end of the year could be under $3 a gallon. When the (gasoline) pump goes down (in price), there is a lot of activity. We’ve been very busy the last few weeks because of the fact of the gas pumps coming down and people want to cash in on favorable pricing.”